The Slipshod Elephant-Part 4

Friday, July 31, 2015 Politics

The final episode of The Slipshod Elephant where India's relations with China are further discussed

Why China is so desperate


China is virtually a totalitarian regime with single party system. The apex governing body is the politburo of the peoples' assembly. It is the party which decides all the aspects of daily lives of all the citizens. The media is absolutely censored and freedom of speech and freedom of movement are restricted. The internal secret police keeps a constant watch on its citizens. The greatest problem for the government is its ever increasing population. The total volume of younger generation between 18-38 years of age is on a constant rise. The Chinese universities are producing millions of new graduates every year. China is desperate to find enough employment for these new set of educated youths. They are striving harder to continue their growth percentage on a constant level to accommodate more and more people who are graduating afresh every year. If they fail to meet these criteria the country will fall in to a turmoil and there will be sporadic events of absolute civil unrest and millions of people will ultimately challenge the ruling party. This is absolutely intolerable for any totalitarian regimes. To meet this ever increasing demand for newer opportunities, they are on a production spree. They are desperate to develop new industrial corridors and accommodate a large swath of the educated youths. The production capacities had been systematically increased. Currently China is the largest consumer of hydrocarbon based fuels and other raw materials. This unquenched thirst for resources, fuel and raw material had created a new wave of imperialism.


To systematically check the rising tide of resentment within its population the Chinese authorities had come up with a new solution in the form of nationalism. China had started to inflict a stronger nationalist sentiments within her masses through troubled relation with her neighbours like Philippines, Vietnam, Korea and Japan. The muscle flexing and  artillery firing in south China sea has become daily news. The propaganda department of the ruling party is trying to inflict more nationalist sentiments and thus indirectly gaining the trust and solidarity of the population through their systematic provocations of Japan and South Korea.

The anti-Japanese and anti-Korean sentiments are on a rise in mainland china.


What China can inflict on us


A very few of China's ambitions are


1) China don't and never want an open conflict with our country. What she need is a constant supply of energy and resources for her factories and manufacturing units. No matter from where she get those.


2) China need a free movement for her marine vessels through the prime logistics path.


3) She want an unconditional access to hydrocarbon based fuel sources like natural gas, crude oil etc.


4) She always want to maintain the appreciation factor of her produce in the world market which is cheap, surplus and ubiquitous.


5) She is destined for a parallel economic world order which can replace the west especially the United States as the decisive factor in world economy.


6) She is destined to create a huge economic and industrial dependency for other nations.



To ascertain her monopoly, China have a huge footprint in Africa. Almost entire mining rights in all the nations in Africa had been bagged by Chinese corporations. In return she will assist them in their development activities in the form of long term credits and supply of finished products. Similar is the case in Latin America. They had bagged the mining rights for Uranium in Australia for a whopping 60 Billion dollars. They already have a formidable presence in central Asia and caucus regions of Eastern Europe. They are already in the final phase for their energy corridor which is termed as string of Perl which connects Shanghai(china), Malaya, Chittagong(Bangladesh), Hambantotta(Sri Lanka), Gwadar(Pakistan), the Persian gulf, Somalia, Yemen and Sudan. There are many strategic choke points involved where they could allow or disallow other vessels to pass through. The acquisition of 30 odd islands in Maldives can enable them to erect listening post and a possible naval base in that part of the world. It is quiet concerning that we have our research institutions and defence establishment within their radar.


Similar to China, we are also trying to expand our economic and manufacturing sector. We are also desperate to find cheaper and reliable source of energy, raw materials and a final profitable market for our products worldwide. Like China, our country also produces millions of College graduates every year. We too are desperate to accommodate this rapidly expanding population for our nation building. But what we are currently facing is an eclipse effect. The opportunity for us to bag newer resource pool and promising markets can decrease constantly in upcoming years If we are just whining. Our country also has to maintain the current economic progress to produce newer employment opportunities for those millions of people who graduates every year in this country. If not our country can witness a civil unrest which can be catalyzed by non-state players which can further increase the chaos. The already disintegrated Indian society in the name of religion, caste, colour, political affiliation and language will be further disintegrated and the entire country will be fragmented. Another major obstacle for our development can be the heavy cost for raw materials which we might purchase from China itself. There can be a scenario where China can control the distribution of raw materials and hydrocarbon based fuels since the countries which produce them had already entered a multiyear contract with Chinese governments for export of these raw materials.


The road ahead


The fanfare of becoming ourselves a two trillion dollar economy is ongoing. But there is least joyous aspect in this as we have to maintain or even increase the growth rate to provide enough employment and finally narrowing the income gap for ever increasing Indian population. What the current, past and future governments and authorities are aiming is a short term triumph and achievements in economic and human development index. This had caused in wealth accumulation within the ultra-rich. We don’t have a governing system where the common man’s participation decides the future of this country. It is a fact that a good amount of Indian entrepreneurs are interested in short term investments thus by amassing a great amount of wealth within a short period of time. They seem to be pretty obvious that our economy can stumble upon during the longer run, If our governance is inept as apparent in the current scenario. This can result in huge civil unrest which was prevalent during the colonial rule. Millions of unemployed graduates or previously employed labour mass can demonstrate their frustration against the authorities. The investors can migrate to safer heavens. Income and standard of living gap will widen at alarming rates. Chaos, poverty, frustration, civil unrest will be witnessed every part of this country. The Chinese or  the Pakistanis doesn’t have to act much to wreak havoc in this vulnerable situation. It is up to the governing bodies and policy makers to decide whether our society should perish or strive forward since we, the common man, doesn’t have any influence in decision making and nation building.



written by
Sreejith A R